10 August 2024

Botswana has introduced a new ban on imports of citrus products from South Africa. As reported by Business Day, the move is intended to boost domestic production in the 2-million population nation, which has been battling new competition from lab-grown diamonds against its second-most prosperous export. In an election year, the pressures on the government are intense to provide a growing economy, or at least to introduce policies to make it seem so.

Botswana has imposed yet another ban on agricultural imports from SA, this time on oranges. Effective from June 17 to the end of August, the temporary ban has been enforced by Botswana’s agriculture ministry to support local farmers and stabilise the market. The move is part of a broader strategy aimed at achieving self-sufficiency in food production, a goal that has seen Botswana extend and expand restrictions on various fresh produce imports until the end of 2025. Their ministry urged businesses to source oranges locally from the Tuli Block, emphasising the importance of sustaining Botswana’s agricultural sector. Authorities have been tasked with closely monitoring the production situation to ensure the initiative’s success.

— Business Day, 6 August 2024

A look at the two-way trade between the two countries demonstrates that South Africa is indeed a dominant exporter to Botswana. Since 2019, exports have nearly doubled from R33-million to now R51.922-million according to the latest annual data (2023).

The picture becomes clearer when we consider that South Africa is the principal exporter to Botswana. The data below depicts the advantage enjoyed by South Africa, which accounts for more than 90% of all citrus products imported by Botswana. This makes South Africa an obvious target for Gaborone’s government.

Not only have exports to Botswana been growing in monetary terms, but in actual quantities too.

Yet Botswana is also a dominant trading partner when compared to South Africa in terms of livestock trade, enjoying about a billion rand gap in any given year since 2021. This should come as no surpise, as livestock have emerged as the country’s leading export, with about three catttle for every one human being in the country.

Nevertheless, the pressures on the Botswana economy are difficult and threaten the very stability of one of the continent’s stablest and most prosperous nation. South Africa can afford to take a knock on its citrus exports, for now, and ought to boost its subsidies for its farmers while engaging Botswana on how to support their transition from a diamond-centred economy. In the long-term, a European Union style common agricultural policy (CAP) programme, within the context of SACU, would be a safety-net for producers at a microeconomic level while also ensuring common prosperity at a macroeconomic scale.