Interview with former South African deputy minister of foreign affairs Aziz Pahad. January 2019. Johannesburg.

WELCOME TO BHASO NDZENDZE’S RESEARCH LAB

My niche research area is global territorial disputes and their impact on African trade. Research and publications in this area include the impact of interstate disputes within Africa as well as those across the world in which Africa has a stake, particularly Asia (especially China-India and China-Taiwan) as well as the uses of technology for commerce, border management and power projection. In recognition of my work in this area, I am an NRF-rated researcher.

I can be reached at bndzendze@uj.ac.za for collaboration or discussion.

Join the Lab: I work with several undergraduate and postgraduate students who are interested in the same areas through supervision and publishing opportunities. Contact me at bndzendze@uj.ac.za to explore how we can collaborate.

RESEARCH AREAS

[DEMOCRACY]

My work in this area is two-fold; I seek to understand the domestic audience cost considerations that African countries have had to consider in initiating wars against one another, and I seek to understand the ways in which the democratisation of the countries on the continent contributed to their decision to recognise China over Taiwan. In this regard, I have proposed two theories. With regards to war, my work has shown that the African countries gave demonstrable consideration to not only their domestic audience costs but also to their targeted rivals’ levels of legitimacy. This extends the literature considerably and demonstrates the regime-type consideration they give of their rival states’ legitimacy within their audience. Secondly, I have demonstrated a democratic effect for African countries with regards to their recognition of China over Taiwan. In brief, the presence or introduction of electoral competition forces African countries to choose the most economically viable alternative between the smaller and much larger China claimants.

Published and working papers:

• “Domestic Audiences and Economic Opportunity Cost: African Democratisation as a Determinant in the Recognition of China over Taiwan, 2001–2018” Journal of Asian and African Studies. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0021909620926531.
• “Autochthonous Routes to Democracy: Assessing the Brics Polities,” in The BRICS Order (co-edited with David Monyae). Palgrave Macmillan.

[TECHNOLOGY]

Given the nature of ongoing changes in the technological sphere, my research has also sought to understand the impact of new military and industrial production technologies on international relations processes and how political scientists think about international relations in the wake of these.

Tools: World Economic Forum (WEF) Global Competitiveness Index (GCI)

Publications:

• Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technologies in International Relations (World Scientific Press, 2021).
• South Africa and the fourth industrial revolution (in the Oxford Handbook of South African Economy, Oxford University Press, 2021).
• Artificial Intelligence and International Relations Theories (Palgrave Macmillan, 2023).

[TRADE AND FDI]

In this area, I seek to understand the ways in which economic interdependency has developed and is playing out between Africa and various countries. I especially insert variables of interest to examine their impact – or lack thereof – on FDI and trade inflows over certain periods of time. I have utilised this to examine how African countries have had their military thinking unchecked by the absence of economic interdependence, how technological changes are likely to impact FDI flows, how demand for African energy is impacted by the attainment of self-sufficiency by the larger markets such as Brazil and the US.

Tools: MIT Observatory of Economic Complexity; UN TradeMap; World Bank; UNCTAD; AEI

Published and working papers:

• Political Economy of Sino-South African Trade and Regional Competition (Palgrave), 2022.
• Turning Crisis into Opportunity? Agricultural Exports to China amid the Trade War, South African Institute of International Affairs
• South Africa-Russia Trade Relations in the Mbeki-Putin Years, 1999-2008 – Ideological Minimalism and Growing Commercial Flows, Southern African Strategic Review, 2021.
• Inversely Correlated? Comparing EU-27 and Chinese Exports to South Africa, 2007-2018, European Foreign Affairs Review, 2020.
• Self-sufficiency and withdrawal: US and Brazilian imports from Africa, 2008-2019 [ongoing research project]
• The revival of US-South African trade under Trump, 2017-2020 [ongoing research project]

[HEGEMONIC STABILITY THEORY]

My excursions into this area include analysis of the Peloponnesian War (431-404BC) in Thucydides, to the hypothetical presence and role of such an actor in East Africa in the 1970s to the 1990s, as well as to the complicated trends observed by China and the US. In this regard, one of my methods involves examining the outbreak of conflicts (or lack thereof) between countries in a determined region at the dips or growths of the demarcated hegemon’s relative GDP and military budget. This method is inspired by K. Edward Spiezio (1990) in “British Hegemony and Major Power War, 1815-1939: An Empirical Test of Gilpin’s Model of Hegemonic Governance” International Studies Ouarterly.

Published and working papers:

• Catching up after a millennium: Jeffrey Sachs on the Chinese economic model, Centre for Africa-China Studies
• The impact of the US-led war on terror on East African-Chinese economic relations
• Region without Hegemon? East Africa’s Interstate Wars, 1977-2000 [ongoing research project]